Arrest of governor, voter fatigue cloud Indonesia’s Nov 27 regional elections seen as test for President Prabowo

JAKARTA: Millions of Indonesians will head to polling stations on Wednesday (Nov 27) to elect 545 regional leaders across the world’s third-biggest democracy, an event analysts say will shape Indonesia’s political landscape over the next five years.
Indonesians will elect 37 governors, 93 mayors and 415 regents after an official campaigning period that began on Sep 25 and ended on Nov 23.
The candidates largely hail from two political factions: President Prabowo Subianto’s 11-party Advance Indonesia Coalition or KIM Plus, and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). A minority are independent candidates.
For Mr Prabowo, the elections will likely determine how well his policies and programmes are implemented on the ground, which ultimately translates to his re-election chances when his term ends in 2029, should he decide to seek a second term.
“If a (regional) leader comes from the opposition camp, then there is a high chance that region will not support decisions and programmes made (by the Prabowo administration) on a national level,” Mr Hendri Satrio, a political analyst from Jakarta’s Paramadina University, told CNA.
For the PDI-P, the elections are a chance to make a comeback and stay relevant after its candidate Ganjar Pranowo – a former governor of Central Java – came in last in the presidential election with 16.5 per cent of the vote.
Mr Prabowo won with 58.6 per cent of the vote in February while former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan was second with 24.9 per cent.
The PDI-P, however, managed to secure the most votes in the legislative election held on the same day, Feb 14, and retain its title as the country’s largest party in parliament.
“The PDI-P will fight very hard not to lose the regional election, particularly in provinces known to be PDI-P strongholds,” Mr Hendri said.
Another former president’s shadow looms large.
The election will be a test of Mr Joko Widodo’s king-making ability after he successfully helped his defence minister, Mr Prabowo, ascend to the presidency. Mr Prabowo’s vice-president is Mr Widodo’s eldest child Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
Mr Widodo, known as Jokowi, was a member of the PDI-P before he decided to go against the party by not supporting Mr Ganjar’s presidential bid.
Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution is running for governor of North Sumatra against the PDI-P-supported incumbent Edy Rachmayadi.
The polls will open from 7am to 1pm local time, after which votes will be tallied. Indonesia has three time zones. 
Independent pollsters and the country’s General Elections Commission will start compiling the results from 3pm local time. 
Vote-counting usually takes a few hours and Indonesians should know unofficial “quick count” results by around 6pm. 
The official results will not be out until one or two weeks later as they involve lengthy verification processes.
Wednesday’s regional elections come after a two-month campaigning period that saw candidates staging rallies, visiting impoverished neighbourhoods and lobbying community leaders and religious figures in hopes of tipping the odds in their favour.  
Experts say the populous provinces of West, East and Central Java – with 49.8 million, 41.8 million and 37.8 million people, respectively – will be key battlegrounds.
Indonesians will also be watching the gubernatorial contest of the country’s biggest and most important city, Jakarta.
The Jakarta governor position is considered one of Indonesia’s most prestigious political posts, with Jokowi and Mr Anies previously occupying the position.
In the West Java gubernatorial race, the Prabowo coalition-backed candidate Dedi Mulyadi has been soaring in latest surveys, which suggest he may secure up to 71.5 per cent of the vote, far ahead of his three rivals.
In East Java, the Prabowo coalition-backed incumbent Khofifah Indar Parawansa is predicted to beat two other candidates with around 55.1 per cent of the vote.
The Central Java gubernatorial election is a tighter race, with various pollsters saying it could go to either Prabowo- and Jokowi-backed Ahmad Luthfi or PDI-P-supported former military chief Andika Perkasa. 
In a reflection of the stakes involved, Mr Prabowo endorsed Mr Ahmad on Nov 3 despite earlier pledges that he would remain neutral during the regional elections.
In Jakarta, the PDI-P- and Anies-backed Pramono Anung is predicted to have a slight lead over the Prabowo- and Jokowi-supported Ridwan Kamil.
If KIM Plus’ candidates win in most, or all of these battlegrounds, Mr Prabowo’s implementation of policies such as the free-meals programme is likely to be smoother. The PDI-P, however, will face an uphill battle to regain dominance.
If the PDI-P and KIM Plus win their share of the key provinces, the power struggle between Mdm Megawati, and Mr Prabowo and Jokowi, is set to continue.
The race for Jakarta governor will extend to 2025 with a run-off between the top two candidates, if no single candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote on Nov 27.
The regional elections have been blighted in recent days by the arrest of Bengkulu governor Rohidin Mersyah and two aides for suspected corruption on Sunday. 
Rohidin is seeking re-election in the Sumatran province and is accused of extorting money from subordinates by threatening to remove them from their positions if they do not contribute to his campaign. He has been charged with extortion. 
Investigators seized banknotes in various currencies worth 7 billion rupiah (US$440,000) from the suspects, said Corruption Eradication Commission deputy chairman Alexander Marwata.
Mr Alexander reportedly said Rohidin’s case reflected a larger trend of vote-buying ahead of the elections, and the commission has received other tip-offs.
Rising cost of living, high unemployment and a dwindling middle class are expected to be top of voters’ minds when they cast their votes.
For Jakartans, issues like the city’s crippling traffic, floods and worsening air pollution could be the deciding factor.
“No one seems to be offering viable solutions to these problems. That’s why the number of undecided voters is high,” Mr Adi Prayitno, a political science lecturer at Jakarta’s Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University told CNA.
Several pollsters put the proportion of undecided Jakarta voters at between 11 and 15 per cent. 
Meanwhile in West Java, undecided voters stand at around 17 per cent, with even higher figures reported in East and Central Java.
According to two separate surveys conducted by Kompas newspaper this month, 22.8 per cent of voters in East Java and 43.1 per cent of voters in Central Java are undecided.
Experts say the high figures could also be the result of election fatigue, which could translate to low voter turnout on Wednesday.
The Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) is more optimistic.
“Given the situation, there is potential for a decline in participation. Hopefully, the voter participation rate can reach 82 per cent,” KPU commissioner Idham Holik said on Saturday, as quoted by Antara news agency.
The participation rate for February’s presidential election was 81.7 per cent.